Tag Archives: Knicks

Chris Paul’s Knicks Toast isn’t Burnt Out…Yet

 

could this image become a reality next year? according to the CBA, it's not out of the question.

could this image become a reality next year? according to the CBA, it’s not out of the question.

 As a result of the new CBA and Tyson Chandler signing with the Knicks in December of 2011, proverbial wisdom suggested Chris Paul’s infamous toast at Carmelo Anthony’s wedding was just another Knick pipedream. In an effort to curb super-teams, the new CBA forbids sign & trade transactions for teams whose total team salaries are higher than $74,000,000. This number, known as the luxury tax apron is crucial in determining a franchise’s flexibility and its ability to change its roster.

According to ShamSports.com, this year’s New York Knicks have salary commitments of $79,289,785 which obviously puts them well over the apron. However, the same cannot be said about next year’s team when looking at certain salary cap commitments. According to cap Guru Larry Coon’s CBAFAQ.com, team salary is calculated differently for determining a team’s ability to use its exceptions and make sign & trade transactions. In these calculations, cap holds for draft picks and free agents are excluded. Based upon my interpretation of the FAQ, so are cap holds for open roster spots. As a result, the toast lives on.

Using Sham Sports’ numbers once again, the Knicks next year have $73,831,215 million committed to the following eight players: Anthony, Camby, Chandler, Felton, Kidd, Novak, Shumpert and Stoudemire. Copeland and Prigioni are both fully unguaranteed and James White has a team option that needs to be determined before June 30th. If it’s not picked up, he is a free agent. Additionally, JR Smith has a player option for 2.9 million for next season. Now if Smith picks up that option, this dream is dead unless the Knicks find a way to trade one of their players for no money coming back so that they remain below $74 million.

Smith however is unlikely to pick up his player option for a variety of reasons. While it’s debatable if his play has improved, what isn’t debatable is how little he made last year and this year compared to what he was making in Denver.  Additionally, this projects to be a players’ free agent market with more teams having cap space than desirable big money free agents.  Much like Ben Gordon got overpaid by Joe Dumars in 2009; Smith could catch the same fortuitous break this summer.

Given what we know now, the Knicks being at $73.8 million puts them below the apron, making a sign & trade acquisition of Chris Paul not impossible. Again, don’t misinterpret what is being said here. A sign and trade for Chris Paul would be highly improbable. The Clippers would have to take back salary commitments equaling I believe to be 80% of Paul’s new outgoing max contract, which would mean for example Tyson Chandler and either Iman Shumpert or Ray Felton. Or perhaps the Clippers would want all five of Camby, Felton, Kidd, Novak and Shumpert. If you ran the Clippers, why you would help facilitate the exit of the best player to ever put on your uniform is unlikely. Of course, it’s also unlikely the Clippers would accept Chandler in a trade when they already pay DeAndre Jordan an eight figure annual salary.

Furthermore, there is no definitive mainstream media sourced evidence out there that this is even the Knicks line of thinking. In an effort not to deal in rumors and hearsay, the point here is to just show that the Knicks are still legally able to facilitate a trade for Chris Paul and fulfill the destiny of the toast. It should be noted that given current salary commitments, the same possibility cannot be said for the Brooklyn Nets and their lengthy ill fated pursuit of Dwight Howard. The Nets currently have $85.55 million committed to 2013-2014, including a $1.1 million dollar player option for CJ Watson. For the Nets to move under the luxury tax apron, they would have to shed $11.55 million dollars in salary at the draft or during free agency without taking back a single dollar.

To speak to the impossibility of that compared to the Knicks situation, this means Billy King would need to find a taker for Gerald Wallace and one or two filler pieces (depending on who the player is), or trade Kris Humphries 12 million dollar expiring contract. Either package would have to go to a team willing to absorb them into cap space or a trade exception while not expecting the Nets to take any salary back on in return. In my opinion, there’s a better chance I’m playing in the final group on Sunday with Tiger at Augusta as a 5 handicap than the Nets finding a taker for either one of those packages.

Nevertheless, the NBA rumor mill is about to start churning at full throttle once again. As it occurs, no matter what you read and what sources you doubt or believe, keep in mind that Chris Paul to the Knicks via a sign and trade is currently only improbable, but not impossible.

Woodson’s Division of Playing Time Could Cost Team the Division

                The Knicks managed to win last night in Cleveland, but issues remain within the organization. Despite a sterling regular season record, Mike Woodson’s rotation decisions lead me to believe he will cost us a valuable game or two in the postseason. Woodson has excelled at coaching his players up, creating plays out of timeouts and getting guys to buy into his way of doing things. However, he’s failed to properly monitor the minutes of his players and has made some very perplexing lineup decisions, addressed below.

The chart assumes that Carmelo Anthony will be back sooner than later.  Additionally, while rotations tend to shorten in the playoffs, it’s my opinion that would not be optimal for this Knicks team.  Notes regarding each chart can be found below them.

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The first thing you notice here is that this rotation features 10 players and also incorporates some key lineup adjustments: No James White, less Carmelo Anthony and more minutes for both Pablo Prigioni and Iman Shumpert. Additionally, my suggestions here give Shumpert more time at the nominal shooting guard position than as a small forward, where he’s succeeded more often this year and where he excelled as a rookie as well. This minute breakout also reduces the minutes of Felton and Chandler, since they’ve been logging heavy minutes for a while now.

This breakdown also puts JR Smith at the small forward position more often. Keep in mind that the small forward for the Knicks can sometimes be deemed the third guard, and that is fine. However, considering that the lineup of Felton/Kidd/Smith/Anthony/Chandler is the team’s best lineup this year (and the league’s best for units that play more than 3 minutes per game together http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_nbas_fab_5s_2013_03_04.html) and in it Smith is either the 3rd guard or a forward with Melo as one too, it’s great that he’s logging more minutes at the “3” than at the “2.”

Additionally, my minute breakdown reduces the minutes that Anthony and Stoudemire will have to play together both as the two “bigs” and overall. Reducing Stoudemire’s center minutes down to 5MPG and Anthony’s minutes at small forward down to 6MPG allows them both do what they do best; play power forward.

Lastly, it would be beneficial for Jason Kidd to play about 25MPG compared to the 30 he’s been averaging all season. Additionally, this breakdown keeps him off the ball for nearly all of those minutes where he’s excelled this year in comparison to as the point guard. As evidenced by the 7-7 record in Raymond Felton’s absence, Jason Kidd struggled this year when logging heavy minutes at the point guard position. Despite this obvious conclusion, Woodson felt the need to put Kidd back on the ball beginning with the Wizards game, and the results have been mixed.  Against Cleveland, once the Knicks fell behind 52-30, Felton reentered the game to play alongside Kidd. Naturally, the Knicks cut that lead to 12 by halftime with Kidd in the backcourt off of the ball.

Should Anthony miss extended time, the minutes breakdown below would be my recommendation.

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In my opinion, a few things need to be adjusted to account for Anthony’s absence as a power forward: Copeland getting 15MPG at PF, Novak getting 5MPG there and Stoudemire playing the entirety of his minutes at the position. In order to adjust make up the projected six minutes for Melo at small forward, I simply upped Shumpert’s minutes from 8 to 12 there and Smith’s from 22 to 24. Clearly, Copeland could log more time at that position if need be.

Additionally, Kenyon Martin could step in as a power forward for some minutes, taking the PF minutes of Novak. Lastly, you’ll see a 3 minute bump in Chandler’s center minutes coupled with a 2 minute bump for the backup center.

Instead of scaling back the minutes of his stars to balance to prepare for a playoff push, the chart below shows Woodson’s playing time from the Warriors game on 2/27.

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                It’s pretty evident that if the minute breakdown looks more like the Warriors game than my suggestions, the Knicks’ collective tank will be on empty by the time they reach the postseason.

 

Watching the Nets through Orange Colored Glasses

Through Orange Colored Glasses

Tuesday evening, I found myself tuning into the fourth quarter of the Nets and Bucks game. While this on its own is purely anecdotal, the emotion concocted by the Nets remains constant for this diehard Knicks fan: one of utter disdain.

When I watch the Nets, I want them to lose by 30 points on a nightly basis. I want them to be the laughingstock of the league, for their newfound Kings County fans to stop showing up, and for utter chaos to ensue. In thinking about why this is the case and how it compares to the other intercity sports rivalries here, the main difference just hit me. The Nets in recent years have posed much more a threat to the Knicks than either football or baseball team posed to its respective counterpart.

Back in the halcyon days of Stephon Marbury, Jaime Feick and Lucious Harris, the Nets were merely a little brother to the Knicks. A 30 win also-ran, Nets/Knicks games at the Meadowlands were a mere Garden Party for a Knicks team that was good for about 50 wins per year. Of course, everything changed in 2002 when the Nets acquired Jason Kidd and the Knicks missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.  The rest is modern New York sports history. The Nets were a formidable eastern conference title contender from 2002 through 2007 while the Knicks spent the same period as the laughingstock of the NBA.

The teams they gutted their rosters together in chase of Lebron, and then Melo. As a result of these team plans coupled with the emergence of twitter, a much purer rivalry was generated between the two fan bases. With regards to the Mets and Yankees and the Jets and Giants, you find ambivalence toward the other team among some fans. Sure, some Mets fans loathe the Yankees and there are Jets fans who’d never root for the Giants, but this blossoming Knicks/Nets rivalry feels different.

Simply put, I don’t think you’d find a single Knick who wishes success upon the Nets. Furthermore, save for the Nets fans who are former Knicks fans and can’t let go of their first true basketball love, I doubt many real diehard Nets fans want the Knicks to do anything but lose 60 games a year.

Of course, the aforementioned converted Nets fan only adds fuel to this rivalry’s fire. Yes, the Knicks have been mismanaged for years by a highly questionable owner. However, leaving a team for another one, especially one in the same city feels tawdry and wrong to me. The beauty of sports is for all the miserable lows, the highs are even THAT much better. To leave a team and never experience those highs is treacherous, in my opinion. While the Knicks may have to deal with Lebron for the rest of the decade, one time in the next 40 years they will finally win that elusive title. The owner can’t screw it up nor can he live forever.

Should that occur, it will be on par with celebrating a Cubs World Series in the Windy City. The parade will be epic and millions city wide will rejoice. The converted Nets fans will feel filthy. The only thing that could top it off in my opinion? If Brooklyn goes 8-74 in the same season setting the all time mark for futility.

 

Opinion – Knicks Should Go After Louis Admundson

James White has impressed for the Knicks in spot minutes this year, but not enough to hold down a spot in the rotation. A legendary dunker, White should win this year’s contest, elevating his status and that of the Knicks to even greater heights. Unfortunately for White, that’s where his Knick career should end.

Simply put, this team has too many swingmen on it.  With Kidd no longer really a point guard, the Knicks have a plethora of healthy bodies who can play the “2” or the “3.”

Currently, they are totally devoid of a healthy body who can function as a center, which is why they should cut James White and offer Louis Admundson the prorated veterans minimum.

At 6’9, Amdundson has played both PF & C in the NBA, most notably for the Suns, Warriors and Pacers.

Admundson would be insurance should neither Wallace nor Camby get healthy. He has per 36 career averages of 10&10 and his career rebounding rate of 16.4% is very much in line with what Charles Oakley’s was over his last four seasons as a Knick.

Admundson has some playoff experience too. He’s appeared in 29 postseason contests, averaging 10 minutes per game.

Simply put, he’s more useful to the Knicks moving forward than James White is, and therefore should be pursued by the front office.

 

Also Found @ TheKnicksWall.com: So Where Are We Now?

The Knicks have put together their most legitimate team this millennium, something I did not believe during the emotional tumult that was this summer’s free agency period. In the aftermath of what transpired, I believed we were doomed for another inconsistent 46 win team, refusing to believe in the predictions that this team could win 50 games or more. At the All-Star break, it appears that I was wrong.

Despite last night’s abysmal showing in a winnable division game against Toronto, the Knicks find themselves in a pretty good spot at the all-star break. With a .640% winning percentage through 50 games, the team is in a spot that I surely would have signed up for on Labor Day.

Could this team have done better? Probably, but there were also some games they had no business winning against very good teams that they could have lost. Conversely, there were some losses against poor competition.

There’s also the question of should this team attempt to upgrade its roster. This has been written about by numerous talented writers elsewhere, but not to be repetitive, yes I feel the Knicks should be seeking out deals if it means improving the team for this year and next.  A “final four” or Eastern Conference Finals berth is the goal here. If a deal can be made without further mortgaging the future (as in do not trade away draft picks) that improves the team, it should be made.

All in all, as we look to the home stretch of 32 games, it is the recent 6-4 stretch since Raymond Felton’s return from injury that has me worried and skeptical that the Knicks will continue to win at this rate, or reach 50 win. As a result, let’s take an in-depth look at the schedule and what it would take for the Knicks to finish 18-14, producing the first 50 win season since 2000 and most likely the first Atlantic Division Title since 1994.

Given that there are professionals with algorithms who project future sports results for a living, it’s important to note that Accuscore.com currently has the Knicks at 52-53 wins for the season while John Hollinger’s ESPN predictions show a final record of 51-31.

To wrap up February after the all-star break, the Knicks travel to Indiana, then to Toronto before hosting Philadelphia and the Warriors in the garden. Given the recent play of the Knicks and these opponents, I unfortunately think 2-2 is most likely here.

March comes in for a lion for the Knicks (schedule here: http://www.nba.com/knicks/schedule#3) and hopefully they don’t come out of it looking like a lamb. With 10 games against current playoff teams (and half of them on the road), the team could very well go 3-7 in that stretch. This coupled with a difficult west coast trip, as a fan right now I’m not confident that the Knicks will take care of business in all their winnable March games. Simply put going 9-9 in March would be an impressive feat. 

Luckily, New York can catch its collective breath in the season’s final ten contests. With six road games (two of which I’d call wins right now) and four MSG games that shouldn’t be lost, the Knicks can finish the year 6-4.

Unfortunately, looking at all 32 games together, that would make the team 49-33 for the year. That record combined with how there are six division contests left implies that winning the Atlantic is far from the lock it seemed two weeks ago. Time to settle in, it’s going to a bumpy ride and no coast to the finish line.

 

For the Knicks, Sharing is Caring

The Knicks recent (or more like 1/2 the season to date really) struggles have been well documented elsewhere by a whole slew of very talented writers. The common theme’s been a lack of perimeter defense and a tendency to revert to a more iso-centric offense. Based upon some assist numbers, it’s certainly a problem.

In the 28 games where the Knicks have recorded at least 19 assists, their record is 23-5. Now, only 10 of those games were against teams that would currently be in the playoffs, but the Knicks are 8-2 in said games. Whether it was the first 10 games of the year or the most recent 10, when the ball moves and assists are recorded, the team wins. Only between games 30 and 40, when they played 5 games with 19+ assists, the team was just slightly above average (3-2 in that stretch).

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When recording less than 19 assists, the Knicks record is just 9-12. In those 21 games, 13 were played against teams who’d be in the playoffs if they started tomorrow (a record of only 4-9 in those games). Since January 1st, the Knicks have had 10 games where they recorded less than 19 assists. In those games, they are 3-7 (2-4 against playoff teams). It should be noted though that in the team’s first 7 games of the season when they went 6-1, 4 of those 6 wins occurred when the team recorded no more than 18 assists. As many remember, that stretch was won with great fourth quarter defense and unselfish play, yet the numbers aren’t supporting the latter memory.

All in all, these numbers beg the following question: Are the better teams stopping the Knick ball movement, or is this a self inflicted wound? It is probably a combination of both. The CAA-3 (Melo, JR Smith and Woodson) quite possibly revert to their old ingrained iso-centric tendencies against better opponents as a result of other action not working.

Nevertheless, if the Knicks don’t start caring about sharing once again, playing games and not golf in June will be a pipe dream.

In the Knick of Time, an Introduction.

For those of you who haven’t seen me espouse opinions in 140 characters or less on twitter over the past 3 years, let me give you a brief introduction into my Knick fandom.

  • I was an ardent supporter of Donnie Walsh & Mike D’Antoni, making me a natural skeptic of Jim Dolan.
  • I was not in favor of the Melo trade, feeling that we overpaid for a player incompatible with our other max guy at the time (MANY more thoughts on this in a future post) and should have held our ground for an elite backcourt asset (also, additional thoughts to come in a future post).
  • I never saw Jeremy Lin play live as a Knick. I don’t believe any rhetoric that the “Lin divide” had anything to do with who saw him live and who did on TV. I was a massive supporter of his, so much so I thought he needed to stay and our current all-star starter needed to go (see here: http://theknicksblog.com/text/guest-post-its-time-to-say-goodbye-to-7/)
  • I’m a huge supporter in the stats, more specifically the advanced ones. Nobody has the time to watch every minute of every single NBA game, so quite honestly it’s a bit easier to reference what those pesky digits are telling you.
  • On top of that, I find the “eye-test” to a lazy cop-out that breeds false narratives and perceptions (e.g. Ray Felton “bulldog defender”), but much more so because it relies on the sample size of what you’ve seen as a sports fan, and rarely is that everything.
  • As of publication, the Knicks are 31-16. For a myriad of reasons, my steadfast support of D’Antoni & Lin, my doubts on Melo, STAT & Tyson playing winning ball together and my full on skepticism of our owner’s plans & decisions all look to be an exercise in incompetency.
  • Yet stick with me, I’ll explain why, how and where these opinions come from. Not just my thoughts on the Knicks, but all our cities’ teams as well. My thoughts might be out there and you’ll agree less frequently than not, but I’ll always find a way to back up my opinion with some semblance of facts & stats. Then maybe, just maybe, you’ll think twice about Gotham sports while reading and say to yourself, “hey this guy’s not so bad after all.”