Tag Archives: Dolan

Chris Paul’s Knicks Toast isn’t Burnt Out…Yet

 

could this image become a reality next year? according to the CBA, it's not out of the question.

could this image become a reality next year? according to the CBA, it’s not out of the question.

 As a result of the new CBA and Tyson Chandler signing with the Knicks in December of 2011, proverbial wisdom suggested Chris Paul’s infamous toast at Carmelo Anthony’s wedding was just another Knick pipedream. In an effort to curb super-teams, the new CBA forbids sign & trade transactions for teams whose total team salaries are higher than $74,000,000. This number, known as the luxury tax apron is crucial in determining a franchise’s flexibility and its ability to change its roster.

According to ShamSports.com, this year’s New York Knicks have salary commitments of $79,289,785 which obviously puts them well over the apron. However, the same cannot be said about next year’s team when looking at certain salary cap commitments. According to cap Guru Larry Coon’s CBAFAQ.com, team salary is calculated differently for determining a team’s ability to use its exceptions and make sign & trade transactions. In these calculations, cap holds for draft picks and free agents are excluded. Based upon my interpretation of the FAQ, so are cap holds for open roster spots. As a result, the toast lives on.

Using Sham Sports’ numbers once again, the Knicks next year have $73,831,215 million committed to the following eight players: Anthony, Camby, Chandler, Felton, Kidd, Novak, Shumpert and Stoudemire. Copeland and Prigioni are both fully unguaranteed and James White has a team option that needs to be determined before June 30th. If it’s not picked up, he is a free agent. Additionally, JR Smith has a player option for 2.9 million for next season. Now if Smith picks up that option, this dream is dead unless the Knicks find a way to trade one of their players for no money coming back so that they remain below $74 million.

Smith however is unlikely to pick up his player option for a variety of reasons. While it’s debatable if his play has improved, what isn’t debatable is how little he made last year and this year compared to what he was making in Denver.  Additionally, this projects to be a players’ free agent market with more teams having cap space than desirable big money free agents.  Much like Ben Gordon got overpaid by Joe Dumars in 2009; Smith could catch the same fortuitous break this summer.

Given what we know now, the Knicks being at $73.8 million puts them below the apron, making a sign & trade acquisition of Chris Paul not impossible. Again, don’t misinterpret what is being said here. A sign and trade for Chris Paul would be highly improbable. The Clippers would have to take back salary commitments equaling I believe to be 80% of Paul’s new outgoing max contract, which would mean for example Tyson Chandler and either Iman Shumpert or Ray Felton. Or perhaps the Clippers would want all five of Camby, Felton, Kidd, Novak and Shumpert. If you ran the Clippers, why you would help facilitate the exit of the best player to ever put on your uniform is unlikely. Of course, it’s also unlikely the Clippers would accept Chandler in a trade when they already pay DeAndre Jordan an eight figure annual salary.

Furthermore, there is no definitive mainstream media sourced evidence out there that this is even the Knicks line of thinking. In an effort not to deal in rumors and hearsay, the point here is to just show that the Knicks are still legally able to facilitate a trade for Chris Paul and fulfill the destiny of the toast. It should be noted that given current salary commitments, the same possibility cannot be said for the Brooklyn Nets and their lengthy ill fated pursuit of Dwight Howard. The Nets currently have $85.55 million committed to 2013-2014, including a $1.1 million dollar player option for CJ Watson. For the Nets to move under the luxury tax apron, they would have to shed $11.55 million dollars in salary at the draft or during free agency without taking back a single dollar.

To speak to the impossibility of that compared to the Knicks situation, this means Billy King would need to find a taker for Gerald Wallace and one or two filler pieces (depending on who the player is), or trade Kris Humphries 12 million dollar expiring contract. Either package would have to go to a team willing to absorb them into cap space or a trade exception while not expecting the Nets to take any salary back on in return. In my opinion, there’s a better chance I’m playing in the final group on Sunday with Tiger at Augusta as a 5 handicap than the Nets finding a taker for either one of those packages.

Nevertheless, the NBA rumor mill is about to start churning at full throttle once again. As it occurs, no matter what you read and what sources you doubt or believe, keep in mind that Chris Paul to the Knicks via a sign and trade is currently only improbable, but not impossible.

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Also Found @ TheKnicksWall.com: So Where Are We Now?

The Knicks have put together their most legitimate team this millennium, something I did not believe during the emotional tumult that was this summer’s free agency period. In the aftermath of what transpired, I believed we were doomed for another inconsistent 46 win team, refusing to believe in the predictions that this team could win 50 games or more. At the All-Star break, it appears that I was wrong.

Despite last night’s abysmal showing in a winnable division game against Toronto, the Knicks find themselves in a pretty good spot at the all-star break. With a .640% winning percentage through 50 games, the team is in a spot that I surely would have signed up for on Labor Day.

Could this team have done better? Probably, but there were also some games they had no business winning against very good teams that they could have lost. Conversely, there were some losses against poor competition.

There’s also the question of should this team attempt to upgrade its roster. This has been written about by numerous talented writers elsewhere, but not to be repetitive, yes I feel the Knicks should be seeking out deals if it means improving the team for this year and next.  A “final four” or Eastern Conference Finals berth is the goal here. If a deal can be made without further mortgaging the future (as in do not trade away draft picks) that improves the team, it should be made.

All in all, as we look to the home stretch of 32 games, it is the recent 6-4 stretch since Raymond Felton’s return from injury that has me worried and skeptical that the Knicks will continue to win at this rate, or reach 50 win. As a result, let’s take an in-depth look at the schedule and what it would take for the Knicks to finish 18-14, producing the first 50 win season since 2000 and most likely the first Atlantic Division Title since 1994.

Given that there are professionals with algorithms who project future sports results for a living, it’s important to note that Accuscore.com currently has the Knicks at 52-53 wins for the season while John Hollinger’s ESPN predictions show a final record of 51-31.

To wrap up February after the all-star break, the Knicks travel to Indiana, then to Toronto before hosting Philadelphia and the Warriors in the garden. Given the recent play of the Knicks and these opponents, I unfortunately think 2-2 is most likely here.

March comes in for a lion for the Knicks (schedule here: http://www.nba.com/knicks/schedule#3) and hopefully they don’t come out of it looking like a lamb. With 10 games against current playoff teams (and half of them on the road), the team could very well go 3-7 in that stretch. This coupled with a difficult west coast trip, as a fan right now I’m not confident that the Knicks will take care of business in all their winnable March games. Simply put going 9-9 in March would be an impressive feat. 

Luckily, New York can catch its collective breath in the season’s final ten contests. With six road games (two of which I’d call wins right now) and four MSG games that shouldn’t be lost, the Knicks can finish the year 6-4.

Unfortunately, looking at all 32 games together, that would make the team 49-33 for the year. That record combined with how there are six division contests left implies that winning the Atlantic is far from the lock it seemed two weeks ago. Time to settle in, it’s going to a bumpy ride and no coast to the finish line.

 

In the Knick of Time, an Introduction.

For those of you who haven’t seen me espouse opinions in 140 characters or less on twitter over the past 3 years, let me give you a brief introduction into my Knick fandom.

  • I was an ardent supporter of Donnie Walsh & Mike D’Antoni, making me a natural skeptic of Jim Dolan.
  • I was not in favor of the Melo trade, feeling that we overpaid for a player incompatible with our other max guy at the time (MANY more thoughts on this in a future post) and should have held our ground for an elite backcourt asset (also, additional thoughts to come in a future post).
  • I never saw Jeremy Lin play live as a Knick. I don’t believe any rhetoric that the “Lin divide” had anything to do with who saw him live and who did on TV. I was a massive supporter of his, so much so I thought he needed to stay and our current all-star starter needed to go (see here: http://theknicksblog.com/text/guest-post-its-time-to-say-goodbye-to-7/)
  • I’m a huge supporter in the stats, more specifically the advanced ones. Nobody has the time to watch every minute of every single NBA game, so quite honestly it’s a bit easier to reference what those pesky digits are telling you.
  • On top of that, I find the “eye-test” to a lazy cop-out that breeds false narratives and perceptions (e.g. Ray Felton “bulldog defender”), but much more so because it relies on the sample size of what you’ve seen as a sports fan, and rarely is that everything.
  • As of publication, the Knicks are 31-16. For a myriad of reasons, my steadfast support of D’Antoni & Lin, my doubts on Melo, STAT & Tyson playing winning ball together and my full on skepticism of our owner’s plans & decisions all look to be an exercise in incompetency.
  • Yet stick with me, I’ll explain why, how and where these opinions come from. Not just my thoughts on the Knicks, but all our cities’ teams as well. My thoughts might be out there and you’ll agree less frequently than not, but I’ll always find a way to back up my opinion with some semblance of facts & stats. Then maybe, just maybe, you’ll think twice about Gotham sports while reading and say to yourself, “hey this guy’s not so bad after all.”